Bulgaria and Romania will become the 26th and 27th members of the European Union (EU) in 2007. The United Kingdom (UK) is one of the few countries in the European Union to allow residents of Eastern Europe to work in England after the last enlargement in 2004. Zornitsa and Stoyanova-Yerburgh (2006) indicate that: “It is estimated that 600,000 migrants have moved to the UK in the last two years." Adding that: “…250,000 jobs a year are created by the UK economy and the economy continues to grow.” Furthermore, Ullmann (2006) argues that: “The free movement of labor in the UK has given a timely boost to our labor markets.” Therefore, the imminent accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the European Union would have a significant effect on the labor market. Of the many economic aspects of future enlargement, wage rates and employment may be the most worrying. Based on supply and demand analysis it may be possible to investigate the main effects of immigration on labor and wages in the UK. Figure 1 represents the labor market, where wages, determined by supply and demand, are initially at the We1 level. An influx of migrants from Bulgaria and Romania could cause a shift in the labor supply curve from S1 to S2 and, other things being equal, wage rates will be reduced to We2. Therefore, the increase in labor supply could influence the fall in wages and consequently lower the living standards of workers already residing in the country. Furthermore, wages and employment rates are also influenced by the elasticity of demand. Considering that the demand for labor is elastic, which according to Sloman (2004: 54): “When the quantity demanded changes by a greater percentage than the price”, then the supply of labor would increase to LE2 and require additional employees with an insignificant decrease in wages at WE2, as shown in Figure 2. However, when labor demand is inelastic, as defined by Sloman (2004: 54): “When the quantity demanded changes by less than price,” labor supply would increase insignificantly up to LE2 in proportion to a sharp decrease in wages at WE2, as illustrated in Figure 3. Furthermore, the influx of workers from Romania and Bulgaria could increase migrant spending from the income they earn as well as the creation of new jobs in the country as a result of increased productivity levels. As a result, Figure 4 illustrates that the demand curve would shift from D1 to D2 and, all other things being equal, wage rates would increase from We1 to We2, just as the labor force employed would increase from Le1 to Le.2.
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